War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an continuing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The military government is conducting a staggered election nearly half a decade after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the polls under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings urging people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it difficult to predict a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has urged negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative told a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "the path to democracy".