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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

Yet the current race is profoundly different. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions declining and recent underperformers ascending in unison. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling year, he's facing several other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still