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China has sent its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japan's territory as China ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and people categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.