Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
